As the geopolitical landscape shifts, with rising tensions among global powers, the United States faces pivotal decisions in shaping its defense strategy for the coming years.
The focus has increasingly turned towards conventional warfare capabilities, preparing for potential confrontations with nations like China and Russia. This strategy, as outlined in the U.S. National Defense Strategy, emphasizes a robust buildup of military might aimed at deterring adversaries through a display of force. However, this approach has stirred discussion within the defense community about the balance between conventional warfare preparation and the nuanced realm of irregular warfare, a facet of military engagement that has defined much of the United States’ recent conflict history.
Irregular warfare includes a wide range of military and quasi-military operations, from counterinsurgency and guerrilla tactics to cyber warfare and information operations. It represents a form of conflict that diverges from traditional battlefield engagements, often involving non-state actors and asymmetric tactics. The Cold War era, with its complex interplay of global superpowers through proxy wars and indirect confrontations, provides a historical backdrop that underscores the importance of irregular warfare in great-power competition.
Amid current global dynamics, some experts and policymakers argue for a more integrated approach that incorporates lessons from both past and recent experiences of irregular warfare. They point to the Cold War as a period rich in examples of how irregular conflict shaped international relations and strategic outcomes. A retrospective analysis of the Cold War era reveals that irregular warfare played a pivotal role in the vast majority of conflicts that saw involvement from the world’s leading powers. Data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program indicates that, of the 123 armed conflicts occurring globally between 1975 and 1991, 107 featured civil wars or other forms of irregular warfare. Furthermore, in these conflicts, the superpowers of the time provided support to at least one of the warring factions, with involvement in 61 percent of conflicts in the Middle East and 60 percent in Africa. These historical insights, they suggest, could inform a balanced strategy that addresses the multifaceted nature of modern threats.
Conversations in Washington and among the military leadership reflect an awareness of the strategic value of irregular warfare. Statements from senior defense officials and recent policy initiatives indicate a recognition of its role in complementing conventional military capabilities. Despite this acknowledgment, the overarching focus of U.S. defense planning remains heavily tilted towards preparing for large-scale, state-on-state conflicts, potentially at the expense of the diverse capabilities required for irregular warfare scenarios.
The evolving discussion on the right balance between conventional and irregular warfare capabilities highlights a broader debate about the future direction of U.S. national security strategy. As the United States navigates the challenges of an increasingly complex and unpredictable global environment, the experiences of the past, alongside the realities of current and emerging threats, are prompting a reevaluation of how to best prepare for a wide spectrum of conflict scenarios. This ongoing debate underscores the dynamic nature of military strategy and the need for adaptability and threat preparation in the face of uncertain future conflicts.
In light of these considerations, the United States stands at a crossroads in determining the optimal mix of military capabilities and strategies to safeguard national interests and promote global stability. The decision-making process is influenced by a range of factors, from historical precedents and lessons learned to assessments of current threats and future projections. As the discussion unfolds, it remains an open question how the U.S. will navigate the balance between preparing for the possibility of conventional warfare with major powers and remaining adept in the irregular warfare that has characterized much of its recent military history.
